Am I being paranoid, or does it feel like we’re teetering on the precipice of a world war? Granted, conflicts and skirmishes across the globe are a constant, but does it seem to you that we may have a perfect storm of despotic leaders, unilateral increased military spending, escalating “tensions”, and diplomatic rhetoric of the type not seen in 80 years, if ever before? Ongoing hoo-hah in the Middle East, Russia’s continued land-grab for Ukraine and the car crash meeting which has just spilled out of it, trade wars with Mexico, Canada, and China, and now the Chinese saying “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end” – fill me with a sense of dread usually reserved for the publishing of a Consult blog. Now the French are warning us of war, with or without the Americans, and that we all need to throw money at the military instead of croissants and long, dry bread.
I’m a bit of a history nerd as I watch documentaries and not MAFS like some people, and we currently have the macho posturing and jockeying for alliances which set the scene for World War I. We also have a country being invaded, with others pledging (to varying degrees) to get stuck in à la World War II. One of these factors alone was enough to kick them off last time round.
The market here was finally starting to pick up FFS.
Although I’m sure I am being paranoid, I spent last night googling the effect of war on economies, and even the recruitment industry. For those chasing a sexless marriage, I suggest you try something similar. Regular readers will know that I’m more of a pub economist than a be-suited PowerPoint addict, but the academic consensus flies in the face of what we were taught at school; overall, wars are pretty sh*tty for the economy. And it’s even worse should you decide to play “at home” like Ukraine. Yes, it’s pretty good if your company manufactures tanks, and although GDP might appear to increase, and unemployment certainly drops, economists have mostly failed to take into account the destruction of infrastructure, the opportunity cost in running a normal country, and the fact that all the unemployed are now front line in the Cannon-Fodder division fighting off the Chinese/Canadians/Americans. Semi-interestingly for me (and not my wife), I found one article from an Israeli recruiter about the realities of being a recruiter when candidates are getting drafted and clients are getting bombed. Although I’m backing the other lot, it’s an interesting read, and would suggest that after an initial hiring freeze, volumes actually pick up, albeit in different industries with different challenges. As a rule however, any form of international conflict does not help recruiters.
And of course I am being paranoid. The chances of a true world war are still (hopefully) slim. What is certain however, is more uncertainty. And with us Kiwi recruiters struggling over micro-uncertainties for the past two years, and now the first genuine green shoots emerging, do we need a big f*ck-off macro-uncertainty hitting us square in the Betty Swallocks right now?
I think not my friends.
What we can only hope for is what I call “uncertainty fatigue”. I am hoping that we’ve all become so exhausted by uncertainties, that we no longer give a f*ck. I’m hoping that uncertainty has become so certain that it represents the new normal. And that hiring managers, to quote an old WW2 era propaganda poster, “keep calm and carry on“. If we can ignore the price of eggs in the US and the missiles over Winnipeg, interest rates here are still coming down, and almost all of our clients are getting busier. There are things to be positive about providing we limit our eyes to Aotearoa. And if it turns out that I’m not suffering from paranoia, then we might all get the chance to bayonet a paratrooper. It’s certainly on my bucket list.
^SW
