Because I like cheap property and long commutes, I live in the Auckland suburb of Titirangi. For those who don’t know Auckland, or perhaps New Zealand, Titirangi is mostly bush, hills, and women who look like they’ve got Lenny Kravitz in a headlock. Because of these hills, landslips are common. In fact, one major road, the road that gets me to work, has been shut for 6 months. Thankfully, or at least as I felt at the time, this was due to be fixed by the time I returned from my recent 5 weeks away. This alone would save me 15 minutes each way in my commute. Of course with Auckland being Auckland, I have returned and the road is still closed, my house is still cheap, and my life still sucks.
I had also hoped that in my 5 weeks away, the economy would have righted itself. I’ve been recruiting long enough to know that these things are cyclical, so I’m typically a patient boy. This time round however, I feel my patience being tested more than most. It’s not so much the length of the time that we’re sitting in the economic doldrums, it’s more the false starts. Regular readers of this blog will know that I’ve sometimes prophesised that “once XYZ happens, the recruitment market will pick up”. XYZ has been the all of government saga, the Auckland sub-panel, Christmas, a new government, the new financial year, winter, and now probably Christmas once again. However, when we speak to clients, the optimistic amongst them talk of “green shoots”, but these green shoots seem to be cryogenically frozen like Ripley in Alien III. I bumped into a more honest recruiter in the pub the other day who described the market as “f*cking awful”.
It was therefore with both surprise and delight that I read this Herald headline yesterday:
“Business confidence soars to highest in a decade in latest ANZ Business Outlook survey”
You can read the article here, but according to an ANZ Business Outlook Survey, the last time we felt this positive about our economic future, Bill Cosby was one of the good guys. Quite an incredible statistic. At first I thought this was purely based on interest rates shifting in the right direction. Anyone who owns a house in NZ will have felt the pinch/strangulation of 8%, and it’s hard to “go big” in business when you’re struggling to keep your house. According to ANZ however, this spike in confidence pre-dates these cuts. It would seem that either the stars have aligned or we’ve all just got fed up with being miserable.
All things are relative of course. The point made by ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner is that “Things are looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms.” and “Not to be a killjoy, but it remains the case that the hurdle for expecting better times ahead is very low“. So although we are feeling overwhelmingly positive, this is set to the backdrop of a few years of immense negativity. We’re a homeless man getting a slice of toast, not Henry VIII eating pork chops out of Anne Boleyn’s bum crack.
I’ve always felt that Recruitment is a confidence game. Just look how deals drop in for top billers and fall over for those being performance managed. With this latest bit of news, I think we need to lead the positivity and optimism charge with our clients and colleagues. I think the hairy-fannied hippies round here would call it “manifesting“. Although our clients are all scared to pull the trigger, evidence would suggest we’re at the bottom of the dip. Those who buy now will be the early Facebook investors, the Grey Lynn home owners, the people with all the top talent. If our clients want to wait it out before hiring, they’ll find themselves in a very different market come next year. You go tell ’em.
^SW
