“Keep ya pecker up” ’tis what they say. And having gone through a run of personal bad luck recently, I couldn’t agree more. Without dwelling on it, I’ve had a motorbike stolen, a bathroom and bedroom destroyed by flood, shingles, two weird growths cut out of my body, and a dead dog. And that’s just scratching the surface. However, I think those around me would attest that my pecker has remained “up“.
My personal life seems to mirror New Zealand right now, except without the upright pecker. Contrary to what many believe, I actually prefer writing a “feel good” blog over the poison pen missives that sometimes spew forth on a Friday morning. Admittedly, no one reads the nice ones, but that’s not the point. Starting a Friday writing something nice is a more pleasurable endeavour at 6am. This year it’s been a struggle to find much to celebrate. Let’s see if I can salvage anything today.
It is clear that Aotearoa is having a “moment”. Not the inspirational, scenic-drone-shot-over-Lake-Wakatipu kind. More the unemployment-at-a-nine-year-high type of moment. That’s 160,000 (over 5%) of Kiwis spending their days at home flicking themselves off to Anne Robinson. That number only paints part of the picture, as by the time you factor in “underemployment” and those “given up seeking work” cases, the truth is much uglier.
At the exact same time as this, record numbers of Kiwis are leaving the country – not for OE adventures, not to “find themselves” by eating vegan food in a non-vegan country – but because Australia, Europe, and just about everywhere else seems to offer higher salaries, lower grocery bills, and politicians who do more than argue about Te Tiriti o Waitangi. In the last 12 months, NZ has seen one of its biggest net migration losses of Kiwi citizens since records began. You only need to scroll through LinkedIn to realise it’s not just youngsters. It’s entire households who are selling up and hitting Auckland Airport like refugees from a failed relationship.
Recruiters feel the brunt of this. For roles that require less skill or experience, who’s going to use a recruitment firm when there are 160,000 people desperate for work? Any work. For hard to fill roles where we do get used, well, all the good people are leaving because they can’t justify $18 for a block of cheese. Things are, to quote Lord Tennyson, “f*cked”.
So where’s all this positivity I promised? What about my pecker??
Well here’s where history and the impotence of politicians comes to the rescue. The truth is, although the numbers look bad, the market is far from collapsing. Reshuffling yes. Collapsing, no. In the 70s we had the “oil shock”. Prices exploded, everybody left. In the late 80s and early 90s we had “Rogernomics” and “Ruthanasia”. Whole sectors evaporated and families moved to Australia in droves. Those who stayed swore they would never vote again. In 2008 we had the GFC, law graduates applied for barista jobs, got declined, and moved to Australia.
The cycle of unemployment spike + migration spike is not new. It’s actually a national personality trait of New Zealand. This time just feels worse because a delicately positioned illusion has finally broken. For 50 years we’ve maintained and sold a social contract; Beaches > ambition. Lifestyle > salary. Nature > money. This time round however, the cost of living has gone so high that the dream has stopped justifying the discount.
Regardless of this, and independent of the actions of anti-abortionist Chris Luxon, this type of market always proceeds a fundamental shift. Unlike Australian, NZ seems only to be able to reinvent itself when it really has to. And that time is about f*cking now don’t ya reckon??
Someone, somewhere, will take advantage of the 160,000 available kiwis. Eventually, when every skilled worker leaves, firms will start offering the big bucks for them to stay. Recruiters phones will start ringing. Do I ever think we’ll see the glory days of big recruitment firms making big bucks? Do I hell! AI will see to that (*see almost all of my recent blogs). However, history and maths tells me that following this extended “correction”, better times for us all are ahead. The days of filling call centres, temp receptionists, and first line tech support roles may be over, but recruiters who know their sh*t and can persuade a young professional to rip up that plane ticket to Melbourne still have a bright future. I hope.
^SW
